Building Antifragile Arctic Systems through a Nexus Approach (NAFAS)

The Finnish Arctic is facing rapid environmental, social, and economic changes driven by climate change, geopolitical developments, and increasing demands on natural resources. NAFAS aims to strengthen society’s ability to anticipate change, adapt to uncertainty, and benefit from emerging opportunities by developing an antifragile, human-centred approach.

The project focuses on Inari, the Kemijoki River Basin, and Rovaniemi as interconnected study areas. Governance of water, energy, and land-use systems is supported through environmental monitoring, participatory modelling, and interactive decision-support tools. Through Living Labs, solutions are co-developed, tested, and evaluated together with stakeholders in real-world settings.

Sámi and local communities play a central role as knowledge holders and active participants in decision-making. By combining scientific knowledge with community-based observations and future-oriented scenario work, NAFAS promotes inclusive governance, anticipatory decision-making, and the resilience of Arctic livelihoods, including energy production, tourism, fisheries, bioresource use, and reindeer herding in a rapidly changing environment.

Key themes: 

Antifragility
Arctic governance
Resource nexus
Living Labs
Participatory modelling
Sámi and local communities
Climate adaptation

The project is funded by Academy of Finland's Strategic Research Council grant, SRC 2026: The Changing Arctic Region (ARCTIC) call.